Russia-Ukraine War and Return Forecast of Global Commodity: The Role of Public Sentiments

The study investigated how sentiment has affected commodity returns in this current war between Russia and Ukraine war. The study used Principal Component Analysis to generate sentiment index based on 30 carefully selected 29 keywords. The predictability of sentiment was tested against the commodity returns. The results showed that while sentiment increases returns, integrating the sentiment in our model significantly expands its precision. Keywords: Public sentiment; commodity returns predictability.