Generation Demand Balance Analysis for Uganda-Vision 2040

Uganda’s Vision 2040 establishes a target of 52 GW of installed electricity generation capacity by 2040, an objective that demonstrates a significant divergence from current growth projections. This study utilises a quantitative methodology, employing econometric and time-series models to forecast electricity demand, peak loads, and installed capacity through 2040. Sector-specific consumption data from 2013 to 2023, alongside key socio-economic drivers, were used to develop log-linear regression models for energy demand and a harmonic regression model for peak demand. Under the base-case scenario, 2040 annual energy demand is projected to reach approximately 14,320 GWh, with a peak demand of 2,291 MW, and an installed capacity of 3,381 MW. These forecasts account for only 6% of the Vision 2040 capacity target. This substantial mismatch between the ambitious national objective and data-driven projections underscores the critical need for evidence-based planning to mitigate the risks of stranded assets, financial inefficiency, and unsustainable development. The findings advocate for a phased, demand-driven approach to generation expansion to ensure a reliable and economically viable energy future for Uganda. Keywords: Generation-Demand Balance; Electricity Forecasting; Uganda Vision 2040; Econometric Modelling; Energy Policy; Sustainable Development; Sub-Saharan Africa