Regulating Beyond the Grid: Harnessing Big Data Analytics for Sustainable and Inclusive Off-Grid Energy Systems

Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) solar firms generate high-frequency operations data, yet regulators rarely use these streams to underpin oversight. This paper analyses twelve months of transaction data from two PAYG portfolios in Uganda and Rwanda (over 115,000 customer accounts; 2019) to propose regulator-ready indicators for off-grid electrification. The two firms' datasets were cleaned, harmonised, and analysed in Microsoft Excel and Python to generate insights for regulatory decisions. GPS cluster client coverage maps at the village level show where access is concentrated. Time series of account and product status show sharp contractions, e.g., the 12.6% contraction in Rwanda and the 36.6% contraction in Uganda. Meanwhile, product-segmented balances reveal concentration in a small number of product lines and lumpy repayments. The Portfolio-at-risk (PAR) analyses quite obviously show the arrears migration: one portfolio shows a PAR90+ increase in the face of overall portfolio contraction, and the other migrates towards shorter-dated arrears alongside contracting active service. The analysis is intentionally non-comparative; each portfolio is read as a singular case to bring both visibility and opacity in existing data to the fore. Critically, the truncated datasets omit payment completions in Rwanda and reconnections in Uganda, limiting differentiation between maturations and write-offs. We argue that indicators such as spatial coverage, account updates, product balances, and PAR trends can support proportionate, real-time regulation and scale to mini-grids, commercial, and grid-tied systems wherever sensor-based monitoring is feasible. Key words: Off-grid electrification, PAYG solar, big data, regulation, real-time oversight